Consistent Effects of Early Remdesivir on Symptoms and Disease Progression Across At-Risk Outpatient Subgroups: Treatment Effect Heterogeneity in PINETREE Study.

INTRODUCTION: In the PINETREE study, early remdesivir treatment reduced risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related hospitalizations or all-cause death versus placebo by 87% by day 28 in high-risk, non-hospitalized patients. Here we report results of assessment of heterogeneity of treatment effect (HTE) of early outpatient remdesivir, focusing on time from symptom onset and number of baseline risk factors (RFs). METHODS: PINETREE was a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of non-hospitalized patients with COVID-19 who were randomized within 7 days of symptom onset and had ≥ 1 RF for disease progression (age ≥ 60 years, obesity [body mass index ≥ 30], or certain coexisting medical conditions). Patients received remdesivir intravenously (200 mg on day 1 and 100 mg on days 2 and 3) or placebo. RESULTS: In this subgroup analysis, HTE of remdesivir by time from symptom onset at treatment initiation and number of baseline RFs was not detected. Treatment with remdesivir reduced COVID-19-related hospitalizations independent of stratification by time from symptom onset to randomization. Of patients enrolled ≤ 5 days from symptom onset, 1/201 (0.5%) receiving remdesivir and 9/194 (4.6%) receiving placebo were hospitalized (hazard ratio [HR] 0.10; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.01-0.82). Of those enrolled at > 5 days from symptom onset, 1/78 (1.3%) receiving remdesivir and 6/89 (6.7%) receiving placebo were hospitalized (HR 0.19; 95% CI 0.02-1.61). Remdesivir was also effective in reducing COVID-19-related hospitalizations when stratified by number of baseline RFs for severe disease. Of patients with ≤ 2 RFs, 0/159 (0.0%) receiving remdesivir and 4/164 (2.4%) receiving placebo were hospitalized; of those with ≥ 3 RFs, 2/120 (1.7%) receiving remdesivir and 11/119 (9.2%) receiving placebo were hospitalized (HR 0.16; 95% CI 0.04-0.73). CONCLUSIONS: In the outpatient setting, benefit of remdesivir initiated within 7 days of symptoms appeared to be consistent across patients with RFs. Therefore, it may be reasonable to broadly treat patients with remdesivir regardless of comorbidities. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT04501952.

Combinations of Host- and Virus-Targeting Antiviral Drugs Confer Synergistic Suppression of SARS-CoV-2.

Three directly acting antivirals (DAAs) demonstrated substantial reduction in COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in clinical trials. However, these agents did not completely prevent severe illness and are associated with cases of rebound illness and viral shedding. Combination regimens can enhance antiviral potency, reduce the emergence of drug-resistant variants, and lower the dose of each component in the combination. Concurrently targeting virus entry and virus replication offers opportunities to discover synergistic drug combinations. While combination antiviral drug treatments are standard for chronic RNA virus infections, no antiviral combination therapy has been approved for SARS-CoV-2. Here, we demonstrate that combining host-targeting antivirals (HTAs) that target TMPRSS2 and hence SARS-CoV-2 entry, with the DAA molnupiravir, which targets SARS-CoV-2 replication, synergistically suppresses SARS-CoV-2 infection in Calu-3 lung epithelial cells. Strong synergy was observed when molnupiravir, an oral drug, was combined with three TMPRSS2 (HTA) oral or inhaled inhibitors: camostat, avoralstat, or nafamostat. The combination of camostat plus molnupiravir was also effective against the beta and delta variants of concern. The pyrimidine biosynthesis inhibitor brequinar combined with molnupiravir also conferred robust synergistic inhibition. These HTA+DAA combinations had similar potency to the synergistic all-DAA combination of molnupiravir plus nirmatrelvir, the protease inhibitor found in paxlovid. Pharmacodynamic modeling allowed estimates of antiviral potency at all possible concentrations of each agent within plausible therapeutic ranges, suggesting possible in vivo efficacy. The triple combination of camostat, brequinar, and molnupiravir further increased antiviral potency. These findings support the development of HTA+DAA combinations for pandemic response and preparedness. IMPORTANCE Imagine a future viral pandemic where if you test positive for the new virus, you can quickly take some medicines at home for a few days so that you do not get too sick. To date, only single drugs have been approved for outpatient use against SARS-CoV-2, and we are learning that these have some limitations and may succumb to drug resistance. Here, we show that combinations of two oral drugs are better than the single ones in blocking SARS-CoV-2, and we use mathematical modeling to show that these drug combinations are likely to work in people. We also show that a combination of three oral drugs works even better at eradicating the virus. Our findings therefore bode well for the development of oral drug cocktails for at home use at the first sign of an infection by a coronavirus or other emerging viral pathogens.

Modeling explains prolonged SARS-CoV-2 nasal shedding relative to lung shedding in remdesivir-treated rhesus macaques.

In clinical trials, remdesivir decreased recovery time in hospitalized patients with SARS- CoV-2 and prevented hospitalization when given early during infection, despite not reducing nasal viral loads. In rhesus macaques, early remdesivir prevented pneumonia and lowered lung viral loads, but viral loads increased in nasal passages after five days. We developed mathematical models to explain these results. Our model raises the following hypotheses: 1) in contrast to nasal passages, viral load monotonically decreases in lungs during therapy because of infection-dependent generation of refractory cells, 2) slight reduction in lung viral loads with an imperfect agent may result in a substantial decrease in lung damage, and 3) increases in nasal viral load may occur because of a blunting of peak viral load that decreases the intensity of the innate immune response. We demonstrate that a higher potency drug could lower viral loads in nasal passages and lungs.

Improving vaccination coverage and offering vaccine to all school-age children allowed uninterrupted in-person schooling in King County, WA: Modeling analysis.

The rapid spread of highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants combined with slowing pace of vaccination in Fall 2021 created uncertainty around the future trajectory of the epidemic in King County, Washington, USA. We analyzed the benefits of offering vaccination to children ages 5-11 and expanding the overall vaccination coverage using mathematical modeling. We adapted a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, calibrated to data from King County, Washington, to simulate scenarios of vaccinating children aged 5-11 with different starting dates and different proportions of physical interactions (PPI) in schools being restored. Dynamic social distancing was implemented in response to changes in weekly hospitalizations. Reduction of hospitalizations and estimated time under additional social distancing measures are reported over the 2021-2022 school year. In the scenario with 85% vaccination coverage of 12+ year-olds, offering early vaccination to children aged 5-11 with 75% PPI was predicted to prevent 756 (median, IQR 301-1434) hospitalizations cutting youth hospitalizations in half compared to no vaccination and largely reducing the need for additional social distancing measures over the school year. If, in addition, 90% overall vaccination coverage was reached, 60% of remaining hospitalizations would be averted and the need for increased social distancing would almost certainly be avoided. Our work suggests that uninterrupted in-person schooling in King County was partly possible because reasonable precaution measures were taken at schools to reduce infectious contacts. Rapid vaccination of all school-aged children provides meaningful reduction of the COVID-19 health burden over this school year but only if implemented early. It remains critical to vaccinate as many people as possible to limit the morbidity and mortality associated with future epidemic waves.

Multi-scale modelling reveals that early super-spreader events are a likely contributor to novel variant predominance.

The emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC) has hampered international efforts to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. VOCs have been characterized to varying degrees by higher transmissibility, worse infection outcomes and evasion of vaccine and infection-induced immunologic memory. VOCs are hypothesized to have originated from animal reservoirs, communities in regions with low surveillance and/or single individuals with poor immunologic control of the virus. Yet, the factors dictating which variants ultimately predominate remain incompletely characterized. Here we present a multi-scale model of SARS-CoV-2 dynamics that describes population spread through individuals whose viral loads and numbers of contacts (drawn from an over-dispersed distribution) are both time-varying. This framework allows us to explore how super-spreader events (SSE) (defined as greater than five secondary infections per day) contribute to variant emergence. We find stochasticity remains a powerful determinant of predominance. Variants that predominate are more likely to be associated with higher infectiousness, an SSE early after variant emergence and ongoing decline of the current dominant variant. Additionally, our simulations reveal that most new highly infectious variants that infect one or a few individuals do not achieve permanence in the population. Consequently, interventions that reduce super-spreading may delay or mitigate emergence of VOCs.

Drug Combinations as a First Line of Defense against Coronaviruses and Other Emerging Viruses.

The world was unprepared for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and remains ill-equipped for future pandemics. While unprecedented strides have been made developing vaccines and treatments for COVID-19, there remains a need for highly effective and widely available regimens for ambulatory use for novel coronaviruses and other viral pathogens. We posit that a priority is to develop pan-family drug cocktails to enhance potency, limit toxicity, and avoid drug resistance. We urge cocktail development for all viruses with pandemic potential both in the short term (<1 to 2 years) and longer term with pairs of drugs in advanced clinical testing or repurposed agents approved for other indications. While significant efforts were launched against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), in vitro and in the clinic, many studies employed solo drugs and had disappointing results. Here, we review drug combination studies against SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses and introduce a model-driven approach to assess drug pairs with the highest likelihood of clinical efficacy. Where component agents lack sufficient potency, we advocate for synergistic combinations to achieve therapeutic levels. We also discuss issues that stymied therapeutic progress against COVID-19, including testing of agents with low likelihood of efficacy late in clinical disease and lack of focus on developing virologic surrogate endpoints. There is a need to expedite efficient clinical trials testing drug combinations that could be taken at home by recently infected individuals and exposed contacts as early as possible during the next pandemic, whether caused by a coronavirus or another viral pathogen. The approach herein represents a proactive plan for global viral pandemic preparedness.

Tracking SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein Mutations in the United States (January 2020-March 2021) Using a Statistical Learning Strategy.

The emergence and establishment of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of interest (VOIs) and variants of concern (VOCs) highlight the importance of genomic surveillance. We propose a statistical learning strategy (SLS) for identifying and spatiotemporally tracking potentially relevant Spike protein mutations. We analyzed 167,893 Spike protein sequences from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in the United States (excluding 21,391 sequences from VOI/VOC strains) deposited at GISAID from 19 January 2020 to 15 March 2021. Alignment against the reference Spike protein sequence led to the identification of viral residue variants (VRVs), i.e., residues harboring a substitution compared to the reference strain. Next, generalized additive models were applied to model VRV temporal dynamics and to identify VRVs with significant and substantial dynamics (false discovery rate q-value < 0.01; maximum VRV proportion >10% on at least one day). Unsupervised learning was then applied to hierarchically organize VRVs by spatiotemporal patterns and identify VRV-haplotypes. Finally, homology modeling was performed to gain insight into the potential impact of VRVs on Spike protein structure. We identified 90 VRVs, 71 of which had not previously been observed in a VOI/VOC, and 35 of which have emerged recently and are durably present. Our analysis identified 17 VRVs ~91 days earlier than their first corresponding VOI/VOC publication. Unsupervised learning revealed eight VRV-haplotypes of four VRVs or more, suggesting two emerging strains (B1.1.222 and B.1.234). Structural modeling supported a potential functional impact of the D1118H and L452R mutations. The SLS approach equally monitors all Spike residues over time, independently of existing phylogenic classifications, and is complementary to existing genomic surveillance methods.

Early Remdesivir to Prevent Progression to Severe Covid-19 in Outpatients.

BACKGROUND: Remdesivir improves clinical outcomes in patients hospitalized with moderate-to-severe coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). Whether the use of remdesivir in symptomatic, nonhospitalized patients with Covid-19 who are at high risk for disease progression prevents hospitalization is uncertain. METHODS: We conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial involving nonhospitalized patients with Covid-19 who had symptom onset within the previous 7 days and who had at least one risk factor for disease progression (age ≥60 years, obesity, or certain coexisting medical conditions). Patients were randomly assigned to receive intravenous remdesivir (200 mg on day 1 and 100 mg on days 2 and 3) or placebo. The primary efficacy end point was a composite of Covid-19-related hospitalization or death from any cause by day 28. The primary safety end point was any adverse event. A secondary end point was a composite of a Covid-19-related medically attended visit or death from any cause by day 28. RESULTS: A total of 562 patients who underwent randomization and received at least one dose of remdesivir or placebo were included in the analyses: 279 patients in the remdesivir group and 283 in the placebo group. The mean age was 50 years, 47.9% of the patients were women, and 41.8% were Hispanic or Latinx. The most common coexisting conditions were diabetes mellitus (61.6%), obesity (55.2%), and hypertension (47.7%). Covid-19-related hospitalization or death from any cause occurred in 2 patients (0.7%) in the remdesivir group and in 15 (5.3%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.13; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.03 to 0.59; P = 0.008). A total of 4 of 246 patients (1.6%) in the remdesivir group and 21 of 252 (8.3%) in the placebo group had a Covid-19-related medically attended visit by day 28 (hazard ratio, 0.19; 95% CI, 0.07 to 0.56). No patients had died by day 28. Adverse events occurred in 42.3% of the patients in the remdesivir group and in 46.3% of those in the placebo group. CONCLUSIONS: Among nonhospitalized patients who were at high risk for Covid-19 progression, a 3-day course of remdesivir had an acceptable safety profile and resulted in an 87% lower risk of hospitalization or death than placebo. (Funded by Gilead Sciences; PINETREE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04501952; EudraCT number, 2020-003510-12.).

A regulatory T cell signature distinguishes the immune landscape of COVID-19 patients from those with other respiratory infections.

Despite recent studies of immunity to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), little is known about how the immune response against SARS-CoV-2 differs from other respiratory infections. We compare the immune signature from hospitalized SARS-CoV-2­infected patients to patients hospitalized prepandemic with influenza or respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Our in-depth profiling indicates that the immune landscape in SARS-CoV-2 patients is largely similar to flu or RSV patients. Unique to patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 who had the most critical clinical disease were changes in the regulatory T cell (Treg) compartment. A Treg signature including increased frequency, activation status, and migration markers was correlated COVID-19 severity. These findings are relevant as Tregs are considered for therapy to combat the severe inflammation seen in COVID-19 patients. Likewise, having defined the overlapping immune landscapes in SARS-CoV-2, existing knowledge of flu and RSV infections could be leveraged to identify common treatment strategies.

Mathematical Modeling of Vaccines That Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Transmission.

SARS-CoV-2 vaccine clinical trials assess efficacy against disease (VEDIS), the ability to block symptomatic COVID-19. They only partially discriminate whether VEDIS is mediated by preventing infection completely, which is defined as detection of virus in the airways (VESUSC), or by preventing symptoms despite infection (VESYMP). Vaccine efficacy against transmissibility given infection (VEINF), the decrease in secondary transmissions from infected vaccine recipients, is also not measured. Using mathematical modeling of data from King County Washington, we demonstrate that if the Moderna (mRNA-1273QS) and Pfizer-BioNTech (BNT162b2) vaccines, which demonstrated VEDIS > 90% in clinical trials, mediate VEDIS by VESUSC, then a limited fourth epidemic wave of infections with the highly infectious B.1.1.7 variant would have been predicted in spring 2021 assuming rapid vaccine roll out. If high VEDIS is explained by VESYMP, then high VEINF would have also been necessary to limit the extent of this fourth wave. Vaccines which completely protect against infection or secondary transmission also substantially lower the number of people who must be vaccinated before the herd immunity threshold is reached. The limited extent of the fourth wave suggests that the vaccines have either high VESUSC or both high VESYMP and high VEINF against B.1.1.7. Finally, using a separate intra-host mathematical model of viral kinetics, we demonstrate that a 0.6 log vaccine-mediated reduction in average peak viral load might be sufficient to achieve 50% VEINF, which suggests that human challenge studies with a relatively low number of infected participants could be employed to estimate all three vaccine efficacy metrics.

Viral load and contact heterogeneity predict SARS-CoV-2 transmission and super-spreading events.

SARS-CoV-2 is difficult to contain because many transmissions occur during pre-symptomatic infection. Unlike influenza, most SARS-CoV-2-infected people do not transmit while a small percentage infect large numbers of people. We designed mathematical models which link observed viral loads with epidemiologic features of each virus, including distribution of transmissions attributed to each infected person and duration between symptom onset in the transmitter and secondarily infected person. We identify that people infected with SARS-CoV-2 or influenza can be highly contagious for less than 1 day, congruent with peak viral load. SARS-CoV-2 super-spreader events occur when an infected person is shedding at a very high viral load and has a high number of exposed contacts. The higher predisposition of SARS-CoV-2 toward super-spreading events cannot be attributed to additional weeks of shedding relative to influenza. Rather, a person infected with SARS-CoV-2 exposes more people within equivalent physical contact networks, likely due to aerosolization.

Reliability of Self-Sampling for Accurate Assessment of Respiratory Virus Viral and Immunologic Kinetics.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic demonstrates the need for accurate and convenient approaches to diagnose and therapeutically monitor respiratory viral infections. We demonstrated that self-sampling with mid-nasal foam swabs is well-tolerated and provides quantitative viral output concordant with flocked swabs. Using longitudinal home-based self-sampling, we demonstrate that nasal cytokine levels correlate and cluster according to immune cell of origin. Periods of stable viral loads are followed by rapid elimination, which could be coupled with cytokine expansion and contraction. Nasal foam swab self-sampling at home provides a precise, mechanistic readout of respiratory virus shedding and local immune responses.

COVID-19 vaccines that reduce symptoms but do not block infection need higher coverage and faster rollout to achieve population impact.

Trial results for two COVID-19 vaccines suggest at least 90% efficacy against symptomatic disease (VEDIS). It remains unknown whether this efficacy is mediated by lowering SARS-CoV-2 infection susceptibility (VESUSC) or development of symptoms after infection (VESYMP). We aim to assess and compare the population impact of vaccines with different efficacy profiles (VESYMP and VESUSC) satisfying licensure criteria. We developed a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, calibrated to data from King County, Washington. Rollout scenarios starting December 2020 were simulated with combinations of VESUSC and VESYMP resulting in up to 100% VEDIS. We assumed no reduction of infectivity upon infection conditional on presence of symptoms. Proportions of cumulative infections, hospitalizations and deaths prevented over 1 year from vaccination start are reported. Rollouts of 1 M vaccinations (5000 daily) using vaccines with 50% VEDIS are projected to prevent 23-46% of infections and 31-46% of deaths over 1 year. In comparison, vaccines with 90% VEDIS are projected to prevent 37-64% of infections and 46-64% of deaths over 1 year. In both cases, there is a greater reduction if VEDIS is mediated mostly by VESUSC. The use of a "symptom reducing" vaccine will require twice as many people vaccinated than a "susceptibility reducing" vaccine with the same 90% VEDIS to prevent 50% of the infections and death over 1 year. Delaying the start of the vaccination by 3 months decreases the expected population impact by more than 50%. Vaccines which prevent COVID-19 disease but not SARS-CoV-2 infection, and thereby shift symptomatic infections to asymptomatic infections, will prevent fewer infections and require larger and faster vaccination rollouts to have population impact, compared to vaccines that reduce susceptibility to infection. If uncontrolled transmission across the U.S. continues, then expected vaccination in Spring 2021 will provide only limited benefit.

Quantifying the Impact of Lifting Community Nonpharmaceutical Interventions for COVID-19 During Vaccination Rollout in the United States.

Using a mathematical model, we estimated the potential impact on mortality and total infections of completely lifting community nonpharmaceutical interventions when only a small proportion of the population has been fully vaccinated in 2 states in the United States. Lifting all community nonpharmaceutical interventions immediately is predicted to result in twice as many deaths over the next 6 months as a more moderate reopening allowing 70% of prepandemic contacts.

Optimizing vaccine allocation for COVID-19 vaccines shows the potential role of single-dose vaccination.

Most COVID-19 vaccines require two doses, however with limited vaccine supply, policymakers are considering single-dose vaccination as an alternative strategy. Using a mathematical model combined with optimization algorithms, we determined optimal allocation strategies with one and two doses of vaccine under various degrees of viral transmission. Under low transmission, we show that the optimal allocation of vaccine vitally depends on the single-dose efficacy. With high single-dose efficacy, single-dose vaccination is optimal, preventing up to 22% more deaths than a strategy prioritizing two-dose vaccination for older adults. With low or moderate single-dose efficacy, mixed vaccination campaigns with complete coverage of older adults are optimal. However, with modest or high transmission, vaccinating older adults first with two doses is best, preventing up to 41% more deaths than a single-dose vaccination given across all adult populations. Our work suggests that it is imperative to determine the efficacy and durability of single-dose vaccines, as mixed or single-dose vaccination campaigns may have the potential to contain the pandemic much more quickly.

Slight reduction in SARS-CoV-2 exposure viral load due to masking results in a significant reduction in transmission with widespread implementation.

Masks are a vital tool for limiting SARS-CoV-2 spread in the population. Here we utilize a mathematical model to assess the impact of masking on transmission within individual transmission pairs and at the population level. Our model quantitatively links mask efficacy to reductions in viral load and subsequent transmission risk. Our results reinforce that the use of masks by both a potential transmitter and exposed person substantially reduces the probability of successful transmission, even if masks only lower exposure viral load by ~ 50%. Slight increases in mask adherence and/or efficacy above current levels would reduce the effective reproductive number (Re) substantially below 1, particularly if implemented comprehensively in potential super-spreader environments. Our model predicts that moderately efficacious masks will also lower exposure viral load tenfold among people who get infected despite masking, potentially limiting infection severity. Because peak viral load tends to occur pre-symptomatically, we also identify that antiviral therapy targeting symptomatic individuals is unlikely to impact transmission risk. Instead, antiviral therapy would only lower Re if dosed as post-exposure prophylaxis and if given to ~ 50% of newly infected people within 3 days of an exposure. These results highlight the primacy of masking relative to other biomedical interventions under consideration for limiting the extent of the COVID-19 pandemic prior to widespread implementation of a vaccine. To confirm this prediction, we used a regression model of King County, Washington data and simulated the counterfactual scenario without mask wearing to estimate that in the absence of additional interventions, mask wearing decreased Re from 1.3-1.5 to ~ 1.0 between June and September 2020.

Endogenously Produced SARS-CoV-2 Specific IgG Antibodies May Have a Limited Impact on Clearing Nasal Shedding of Virus during Primary Infection in Humans.

While SARS-CoV-2 specific neutralizing antibodies have been developed for therapeutic purposes, the specific viral triggers that drive the generation of SARS-CoV-2 specific IgG and IgM antibodies remain only partially characterized. Moreover, it is unknown whether endogenously derived antibodies drive viral clearance that might result in mitigation of clinical severity during natural infection. We developed a series of non-linear mathematical models to investigate whether SARS-CoV-2 viral and antibody kinetics are coupled or governed by separate processes. Patients with severe disease had a higher production rate of IgG but not IgM antibodies. Maximal levels of both isotypes were governed by their production rate rather than different saturation levels between people. Our results suggest that an exponential surge in IgG levels occurs approximately 5-10 days after symptom onset with no requirement for continual antigenic stimulation. SARS-CoV-2 specific IgG antibodies appear to have limited to no effect on viral dynamics but may enhance viral clearance late during primary infection resulting from the binding effect of antibody to virus, rather than neutralization. In conclusion, SARS-CoV-2 specific IgG antibodies may play only a limited role in clearing infection from the nasal passages despite providing long-term immunity against infection following vaccination or prior infection.

Hydroxychloroquine with or without azithromycin for treatment of early SARS-CoV-2 infection among high-risk outpatient adults: A randomized clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: Treatment options for outpatients with COVID-19 could reduce morbidity and prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission. METHODS: In this randomized, double-blind, three-arm (1:1:1) placebo-equivalent controlled trial conducted remotely throughout the United States, adult outpatients with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection were recruited. Participants were randomly assigned to receive hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) (400 mg BID x1day, followed by 200 mg BID x9days) with or without azithromycin (AZ) (500 mg, then 250 mg daily x4days) or placebo-equivalent (ascorbic acid (HCQ) and folic acid (AZ)), stratified by risk for progression to severe COVID-19 (high-risk vs. low-risk). Self-collected nasal swabs for SARS-CoV-2 PCR, FLUPro symptom surveys, EKGs and vital signs were collected daily. Primary endpoints were: (a) 14-day progression to lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI), 28-day COVID-19 related hospitalization, or death; (b) 14-day time to viral clearance; secondary endpoints included time to symptom resolution (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04354428). Due to the low rate of clinical outcomes, the study was terminated for operational futility. FINDINGS: Between 15th April and 27th July 2020, 231 participants were enrolled and 219 initiated medication a median of 5.9 days after symptom onset. Among 129 high-risk participants, incident LRTI occurred in six (4.7%) participants (two control, four HCQ/AZ) and COVID-19 related hospitalization in seven (5.4%) (four control, one HCQ, two HCQ/AZ); no LRTI and two (2%) hospitalizations occurred in the 102 low-risk participants (one HCQ, one HCQ/AZ). There were no deaths. Among 152 participants with viral shedding at enrollment, median time to clearance was 5 days (95% CI=4-6) in HCQ, 6 days (95% CI=4-8) in HCQ/AZ, and 8 days (95% CI=6-10) in control. Viral clearance was faster in HCQ (HR=1.62, 95% CI=1.01-2.60, p = 0.047) but not HCQ/AZ (HR=1.25, p = 0.39) compared to control. Among 197 participants who met the COVID-19 definition at enrollment, time to symptom resolution did not differ by group (HCQ: HR=1.02, 95% CI-0.63-1.64, p = 0.95, HCQ/AZ: HR=0.91, 95% CI=0.57-1.45, p = 0.70). INTERPRETATION: Neither HCQ nor HCQ/AZ shortened the clinical course of outpatients with COVID-19, and HCQ, but not HCQ/AZ, had only a modest effect on SARS-CoV-2 viral shedding. HCQ and HCQ/AZ are not effective therapies for outpatient treatment of SARV-CoV-2 infection. FUNDING: The COVID-19 Early Treatment Study was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-017062) through the COVID-19 Therapeutics Accelerator. University of Washington Institute of Translational Health Science (ITHS) grant support (UL1 TR002319), KL2 TR002317, and TL1 TR002318 from NCATS/NIH funded REDCap. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the views, decisions, or policies of the institutions with which they are affiliated. PAN and MJA were supported by the Mayo Clinic Windland Smith Rice Comprehensive Sudden Cardiac Death Program.Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT04354428.